← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Sep 19, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 59% | 29% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 28% | 4.42 | value: +23% |
| Plymouth win | 18% | 43% | 5.50 | value: +139% ⚠ |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City −0.75 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Plymouth −0.75 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.63 |
| Under | 41% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Sam Bell · Bristol City |
| 8' | ⚽ | Matty James · Bristol City |
| 26' | ⚽ | Adam Randell · Plymouth |
| 33' | ⚽ | Mark Sykes · Bristol City |
| 35' | 🟨 | Nahki Wells · Bristol City |
| 67' | 🟨 | George Tanner · Bristol City |
| 80' | ⚽ | Harry Cornick · Bristol City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ephraim Yeboah · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Ashton Gate Stadium |
| coach days | 960.00 | 657.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1583.87 | 1621.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.64 | -14.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.90 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| league points | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.56 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -0.05 |
| solidity v1 | 0.49 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.72 | 24.22 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.28 |