← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Fri, Sep 15, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 37% | 38% | 2.65 | fair |
| Hull win | 35% | 34% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Hull +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Joel Latibeaudiere · Coventry |
| 81' | 🟨 | Kyle McFadzean · Coventry |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jake Bidwell · Coventry |
| 85' | 🟨 | Josh Eccles · Coventry |
| 87' | ⚽ | Aaron Connolly · Hull |
| 89' | 🟨 | Joel Latibeaudiere · Coventry |
| 90' | 🟨 | Liam Delap · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron Connolly · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luis Binks · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | The MKM Stadium |
| coach days | 318.00 | 2389.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1618.10 | 1662.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.33 | 4.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.75 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 67.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| league points | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 13.20 | 13.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| solidity v1 | -0.66 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.51 | — |
| state index | 0.66 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 162.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.27 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.42 |