← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 65% | 38% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 28% | 4.80 | value: +36% |
| Hull win | 14% | 34% | 6.50 | value: +118% ⚠ |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull −1.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Leicester −1.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.58 |
| Under | 39% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Alfie Jones · Hull |
| 7' | 🟨 | Lewie Coyle · Hull |
| 15' | ⚽ | Liam Delap · Hull |
| 55' | 🟨 | Harry Winks · Leicester |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jannik Vestergaard · Leicester |
| 60' | 🟨 | Rúben Vinagre · Hull |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jacob Greaves · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Allahyar Sayyadmanesh · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 63.00 | 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1785.91 | 1602.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.80 | 21.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| league points | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.16 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | 0.61 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.46 | 26.46 |
| state index | 1.15 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.97 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 135.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 2.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.32 |