← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 62% | 25% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.46 | value: +26% |
| Cardiff win | 16% | 47% | 6.09 | value: +188% ⚠ |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Cardiff −1 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Aaron Ramsey · Cardiff |
| 33' | 🟨 | Harry Clarke · Ipswich |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ollie Tanner · Cardiff |
| 52' | ⚽ | Joe Ralls · Cardiff |
| 59' | ⚽ | Nathan Broadhead · Ipswich |
| 64' | 🟨 | Wes Burns · Ipswich |
| 65' | 🟨 | Perry Ng · Cardiff |
| 68' | ⚽ | Freddie Ladapo · Ipswich |
| 78' | ⚽ | Freddie Ladapo · Ipswich |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jonathan Panzo · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brandon Williams · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 640.00 | 93.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1706.96 | 1533.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.25 | -4.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 44.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| league points | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | -0.22 |
| solidity v1 | -0.14 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.57 | 26.78 |
| state index | 0.78 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 306.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.42 |