← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 2, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 42% | 50% | 2.31 | value: +15% |
| Bristol City win | 30% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.43 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Swansea −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.82 |
| Over | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Liam Cullen · Swansea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kyle Naughton · Swansea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kal Naismith · Bristol City |
| 48' | ⚽ | Mark Sykes · Bristol City |
| 57' | 🟨 | Josh Ginnelly · Swansea |
| 59' | ⚽ | Sam Bell · Bristol City |
| 86' | 🟨 | Robert Dickie · Bristol City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jamie Paterson · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.11 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days | 63.00 | 943.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1619.07 | 1571.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.88 | 8.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | 0.18 |
| solidity v1 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 24.26 | 26.79 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.90 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.57 |