← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 2, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: D. Coote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 39% | 17% | 2.52 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 34% | 61% | 2.80 | value: +70% ⚠ |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.72 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton +0 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Sunderland +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Jack Clarke · Sunderland |
| 7' | ⚽ | Pierre Ekwah · Sunderland |
| 35' | 🟨 | Sékou Mara · Southampton |
| 39' | 🟨 | Abdoullah Ba · Sunderland |
| 43' | 🟨 | Luke O'Nien · Sunderland |
| 45' | ⚽ | Pierre Ekwah · Sunderland |
| 48' | ⚽ | Bradley Dack · Sunderland |
| 69' | 🟨 | Che Adams · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Chris Rigg · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 20 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 397.00 | 63.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 4.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1636.85 | 1673.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.94 | 30.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| league points | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.10 | 0.96 |
| solidity v1 | 0.88 | -1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 22.60 | 24.52 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 445.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 2.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.76 |