← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 41% | 40% | 2.38 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 31% | 34% | 3.12 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| West Brom −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Cédric Kipré · West Brom |
| 28' | ⚽ | John Swift · West Brom |
| 29' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Latte Lath · Middlesbrough |
| 32' | 🟨 | Tommy Smith · Middlesbrough |
| 44' | 🟨 | Morgan Rogers · Middlesbrough |
| 47' | ⚽ | Brandon Thomas-Asante · West Brom |
| 51' | 🟨 | Tommy Smith · Middlesbrough |
| 51' | 🟥 | Tommy Smith · Middlesbrough |
| 74' | 🟨 | Semi Ajayi · West Brom |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Marcus Forss · Middlesbrough |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| 🟨 |
| Jeremy Sarmiento · West Brom |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jeremy Sarmiento · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 329.00 | 329.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1622.08 | 1655.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.77 | -48.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | — |
| league points | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 65.40 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | 1.20 |
| solidity v1 | -0.39 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.28 | 25.31 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 1.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 235.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.35 |