← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 42% | 10% | 2.36 | fair |
| Leeds win | 32% | 70% | 3.02 | value: +112% ⚠ |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | 3.67 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Ipswich −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ (og) | Joe Rodon · Ipswich |
| 10' | ⚽ | Georginio Rutter · Leeds |
| 14' | ⚽ | Wilfried Gnonto · Leeds |
| 19' | ⚽ | Joël Piroe · Leeds |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sam Morsy · Ipswich |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nathan Broadhead · Ipswich |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jamie Shackleton · Leeds |
| 56' | 🟨 | Massimo Luongo · Ipswich |
| 71' | 🟨 | Luke Ayling · Leeds |
| 75' | ⚽ | Luis Sinisterra · Leeds |
| 87' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 21 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| 90' | ⚽ | Conor Chaplin · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 633.00 | 56.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1719.99 | 1671.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.09 | -41.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.44 |
| league points | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | 0.44 |
| solidity v1 | 0.66 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.47 | 24.33 |
| state index | 1.36 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 264.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.22 |