← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Scott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 64% | 37% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.62 | value: +31% |
| Cardiff win | 14% | 34% | 6.50 | value: +123% ⚠ |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Cardiff −1 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.73 |
| Under | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Stephy Mavididi · Leicester |
| 19' | 🟨 | Aaron Ramsey · Cardiff |
| 36' | ⚽ | Wanya Marcal-Madivadua · Leicester |
| 45' | ⚽ | Aaron Ramsey · Cardiff |
| 57' | 🟨 | Dimitris Goutas · Cardiff |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jamilu Collins · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mahlon Romeo · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mahlon Romeo · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Simpson · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mahlon Romeo · Cardiff |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| Cesare Casadei · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 49.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1778.26 | 1525.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.88 | -11.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | -0.49 |
| solidity v1 | -0.31 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.25 | 28.24 |
| state index | 0.73 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 190.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.70 |