← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 46% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.61 | fair |
| Swansea win | 27% | 28% | 3.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Swansea −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Semi Ajayi · West Brom |
| 39' | 🟨 | Darnell Furlong · West Brom |
| 49' | 🟨 | Ben Cabango · Swansea |
| 50' | ⚽ (og) | Carl Rushworth · West Brom |
| 57' | 🟨 | Oliver Cooper · Swansea |
| 62' | 🟨 | Harry Darling · Swansea |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | John Swift · West Brom |
| 71' | 🟨 | Nathan Wood · Swansea |
| 74' | ⚽ | Harry Darling · Swansea |
| 80' | ⚽ | Nathan Wood · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| Alex Palmer · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Chalobah · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 315.00 | 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1609.78 | 1638.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.95 | 37.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.77 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | 1.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.96 | 24.89 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | 1.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 165.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |