← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Mon, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 38% | 2.63 |
| Stoke win | 34% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.45 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Stoke +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.89 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | 🟨 | Ben Pearson · Stoke |
| 70' | ⚽ | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 74' | ⚽ | Keinan Davis · Watford |
| 76' | 🟨 | Josh Tymon · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 7.00 | 280.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1583.50 | 1586.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.70 | -43.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.64 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| league points | 60.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 65.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 26.76 | 28.27 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 1.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| travel km | — | 191.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |