⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Swansea 3–2 West Brom

← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Mon, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
West Brom win41%2.37
Swansea win33%3.02
Draw26%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Swansea +0.2552%1.87
West Brom +0.2548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.66
Under41%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Okay Yokuşlu · West Brom
26'⚽Luke Cundle · Swansea
54'⚽Semi Ajayi · West Brom
66'⚽Olivier Ntcham · Swansea
76'🟨Brandon Thomas-Asante · West Brom
80'🟨Oliver Cooper · Swansea
85'🟨Taylor Gardner-Hickman · West Brom
90'⚽Joël Piroe · Swansea

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
16Shots10
4On target4
6Corners3
13Fouls9
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSwanseaWest Brom
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
box share (last 5)0.730.74
cards avg (last 5)2.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSwansea.com Stadium
coach days645.00219.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.602.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.11
dominance (last 5)0.640.51
elo1634.941626.36
elo momentum (last 5)56.1310.73
eye test v10.420.20
eye trend v1-0.150.25
form points (last 5)13.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.230.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.45
keeper form v10.710.69
league points63.0066.00
league rank10.008.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)89.4075.60
possession avg (last 5)66.8044.80
rest days9.008.90
scorer concentration0.240.16
season ppg1.401.47
shot diff avg (last 5)6.201.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.8012.20
skill v12.23-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)2.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.404.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.40
squad age25.9328.11
state index1.110.32
sterile dominance v11.70-0.56
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.180.30
threat rate (last 5)0.210.28
travel km—165.60
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40