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Blackpool 2–3 Millwall

← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Fri, Apr 28, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Millwall win43%2.23
Blackpool win29%3.43
Draw28%3.48

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Millwall +0.2551%1.92
Blackpool +0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.85
Over47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Tom Bradshaw · Millwall
24'🟨Zian Flemming · Millwall
26'🟨Jake Cooper · Millwall
32'🟨George Saville · Millwall
36'⚽ (pen)Jerry Yates · Blackpool
59'⚽Tom Bradshaw · Millwall
67'⚽Lewis Fiorini · Blackpool
72'🟨Tom Bradshaw · Millwall
74'🟨Lewis Fiorini · Blackpool
75'⚽ (pen)Zian Flemming · Millwall
90'🟨Morgan Rogers

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
13Shots18
3On target3
7Corners3
12Fouls16
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBlackpoolMillwall
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.610.66
cards avg (last 5)1.401.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBloomfield Road
· Blackpool
coach days27.001305.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.800.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.502.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.08
dominance (last 5)0.420.59
elo1476.471631.08
elo momentum (last 5)-9.38-27.76
eye test v1-0.63-0.06
eye trend v1-0.14-0.19
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.750.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v1—0.73
league points41.0065.00
league rank24.007.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.4068.60
possession avg (last 5)50.0050.40
rest days6.216.21
scorer concentration0.250.32
season ppg0.931.48
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.205.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.8014.40
skill v1-0.51-0.74
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.40
squad age—24.71
state index-0.450.01
sterile dominance v10.04-0.58
threat rate (last 10)0.240.30
threat rate (last 3)0.200.22
threat rate (last 5)0.210.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00