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Norwich 0–3 Swansea

← EFL Championship 2022-23 Β· Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D. Webb

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Norwich win49%1.96
Draw26%3.78
Swansea win24%4.00

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Swansea βˆ’0.550%1.95
Norwich βˆ’0.550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.85
Under47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Joel Latibeaudiere · Swansea
39'⚽Liam Cullen · Swansea
42'πŸŸ₯Sam McCallum Β· Norwich
64'⚽Olivier Ntcham · Swansea
73'🟨Matt Grimes · Swansea
81'🟨Liam Gibbs · Norwich

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
8Shots14
2On target6
2Corners6
8Fouls9
1Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricNorwichSwansea
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.580.68
cards avg (last 5)1.603.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueCarrow Road
coach days111.00629.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.17
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.003.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.921.35
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.11
dominance (last 5)0.610.62
elo1630.871613.43
elo momentum (last 5)-13.6344.94
eye test v1-0.200.54
eye trend v10.26-0.14
form points (last 5)5.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.27
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.45
keeper form v10.770.68
league points62.0059.00
league rank9.0012.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0086.80
possession avg (last 5)56.2063.60
rest days2.802.80
scorer concentration0.210.24
season ppg1.441.37
shot diff avg (last 5)5.205.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.0014.20
skill v10.411.79
sot against avg (last 5)2.802.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.705.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.805.00
squad age25.4125.93
state index-0.060.73
sterile dominance v10.311.31
threat rate (last 10)0.230.22
threat rate (last 3)0.260.23
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
travel kmβ€”374.00
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20