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Coventry 2–1 Reading

← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Coventry win68%1.41
Draw21%4.73
Reading win11%9.10

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reading −1.2550%1.94
Coventry −1.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.92
Under49%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Thomas Holmes · Reading
36'⚽Matt Godden · Coventry
43'🟨Nesta Guinness-Walker · Reading
51'⚽Lucas João · Reading
54'⚽Gustavo Hamer · Coventry
56'🟨Andy Yiadom · Reading
61'🟨Josh Wilson-Esbrand · Coventry
81'🟨Gustavo Hamer · Coventry
87'🟨Josh Eccles · Coventry
90'🟨Brooke Norton-Cuffy · Coventry
90'🟨Tyrese Fornah

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
19Shots11
5On target3
2Corners4
15Fouls12
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCoventryReading
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.510.57
cards avg (last 5)2.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Coventry Building Society Arena
· Reading
coach days2243.0021.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.006.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.311.34
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.06
dominance (last 5)0.530.35
elo1642.801516.75
elo momentum (last 5)-13.126.84
eye test v10.37-1.31
eye trend v1-0.220.15
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.580.52
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.760.78
league points63.0049.00
league rank8.0018.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.0010.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.2066.60
possession avg (last 5)46.0034.40
rest days2.802.79
scorer concentration0.390.24
season ppg1.471.14
shot diff avg (last 5)1.20-8.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.408.80
skill v1-0.61-1.97
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.402.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.671.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.00
squad age—31.41
state index0.11-0.75
sterile dominance v1-0.71-1.34
threat rate (last 10)0.300.21
threat rate (last 3)0.270.28
threat rate (last 5)0.290.26
travel km—119.40
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20