← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Wed, Apr 19, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 53% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.44 |
| Reading win | 19% | 5.15 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading +0.75 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Luton +0.75 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.55 |
| Over | 38% | 2.57 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Andy Carroll · Reading |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jeff Hendrick · Reading |
| 51' | ⚽ | Andy Carroll · Reading |
| 56' | 🟨 | Andy Carroll · Reading |
| 56' | 🟥 | Andy Carroll · Reading |
| 60' | 🟨 | Alfie Doughty · Luton |
| 79' | 🟨 | Joe Lumley · Reading |
| 80' | ⚽ | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Cody Drameh · Luton |
| 89' | 🟨 | Thomas Holmes · Reading |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reading | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Select Car Leasing Stadium |
| coach days | 18.00 | 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1512.79 | 1718.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.77 | 24.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.81 |
| league points | 48.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 4.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.64 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 31.41 | 27.58 |
| state index | -0.63 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.11 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 63.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |