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Blackburn 1–1 Coventry

← EFL Championship 2022-23 Β· Wed, Apr 19, 06:45 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Simpson

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackburn win37%2.63
Coventry win34%2.82
Draw29%3.42

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackburn +052%1.88
Coventry +048%2.04

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.91
Over49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'⚽Sam Gallagher · Blackburn
45'🟨Lewis Travis · Blackburn
80'🟨Joe Rankin-Costello · Blackburn
90'🟨Ryan Hedges · Blackburn
90'🟨Callum Doyle · Coventry
90'⚽Ben Wilson · Coventry

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots4
2On target3
5Corners6
14Fouls9
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBlackburnCoventry
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.720.58
cards avg (last 5)2.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueEwood Park
coach days322.002240.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.10
corner diff avg (last 5)3.80-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)8.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.752.30
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.10
dominance (last 5)0.600.57
elo1600.191642.29
elo momentum (last 5)-24.290.20
eye test v10.800.69
eye trend v10.11-0.21
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.690.78
league points63.0062.00
league rank6.0010.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0074.80
possession avg (last 5)65.4048.20
rest days4.004.20
scorer concentration0.260.39
season ppg1.541.48
shot diff avg (last 5)5.602.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.0016.20
skill v11.37-0.32
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.005.60
squad age25.07β€”
state index-0.020.51
sterile dominance v11.03-0.89
threat rate (last 10)0.220.34
threat rate (last 3)0.250.35
threat rate (last 5)0.240.34
travel kmβ€”157.10
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.20