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Sunderland 1–1 Huddersfield

← EFL Championship 2022-23 Β· Tue, Apr 18, 06:45 PM UTC Β· ref: L. Doughty

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sunderland win61%1.58
Draw24%4.09
Huddersfield win15%6.50

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield βˆ’152%1.90
Sunderland βˆ’148%2.02

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.87
Over48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Dan Neil · Sunderland
35'⚽Joe Gelhardt · Sunderland
47'🟨Jaheim Headley · Huddersfield
59'⚽Josh Koroma · Huddersfield
67'🟨David Kasumu · Huddersfield
87'🟨Danny Batth · Sunderland
90'🟨Jack Clarke · Sunderland

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots13
3On target3
5Corners11
10Fouls21
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSunderlandHuddersfield
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.560.70
cards avg (last 5)0.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadium of Light
coach days260.0076.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.23
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.208.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.411.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.08
dominance (last 5)0.520.31
elo1625.191566.07
elo momentum (last 5)20.0539.58
eye test v10.26-0.85
eye trend v10.070.36
form points (last 5)9.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.45
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
keeper form v10.620.74
league points61.0043.00
league rank11.0020.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8050.00
possession avg (last 5)55.4024.40
rest days3.203.20
scorer concentration0.150.14
season ppg1.451.02
shot diff avg (last 5)1.40-9.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.408.60
skill v10.70-4.14
sot against avg (last 5)4.406.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.502.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.602.80
squad age23.4225.36
state index0.350.13
sterile dominance v10.46-3.31
threat rate (last 10)0.230.32
threat rate (last 3)0.270.39
threat rate (last 5)0.240.36
travel kmβ€”142.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20