← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Tue, Apr 18, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 57% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
| Rotherham win | 18% | 5.71 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley +0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Rotherham +0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Scott Twine · Burnley |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ian Maatsen · Burnley |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Vitinho · Rotherham |
| 68' | 🟨 | Domingos Quina · Rotherham |
| 81' | ⚽ | Manuel Benson · Burnley |
| 82' | 🟨 | Manuel Benson · Burnley |
| 85' | ⚽ | Georgie Kelly · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | AESSEAL New York Stadium |
| coach days | 229.00 | 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.68 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1538.43 | 1835.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.54 | 10.86 |
| eye test v1 | -1.44 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.85 |
| league points | 45.00 | 91.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 65.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 2.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.79 | 1.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.26 |
| state index | -0.17 | 1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | 1.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |