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Swansea 1–0 Huddersfield

← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Swansea win61%1.59
Draw24%4.17
Huddersfield win16%6.17

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield −151%1.90
Swansea −149%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.94
Under50%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Jay Fulton · Swansea
11'🟨Ben Cabango · Swansea
37'🟨Joël Piroe · Swansea
43'🟨Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield
69'⚽Ryan Manning · Swansea
90'🟨Andrew Fisher · Swansea
90'🟨Jack Rudoni · Huddersfield

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots9
5On target1
5Corners4
12Fouls11
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSwanseaHuddersfield
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.700.65
cards avg (last 5)2.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSwansea.com Stadium
coach days622.0073.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.25
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-3.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.808.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.271.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.08
dominance (last 5)0.630.34
elo1592.921573.83
elo momentum (last 5)32.2149.06
eye test v10.86-0.95
eye trend v1-0.120.56
form points (last 5)10.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
keeper form v10.670.72
league points53.0043.00
league rank14.0020.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.6050.80
possession avg (last 5)63.4026.40
rest days5.005.10
scorer concentration0.240.14
season ppg1.291.05
shot diff avg (last 5)6.60-8.00
shots for avg (last 5)15.209.00
skill v11.85-3.94
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.802.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.802.60
squad age25.9325.36
state index0.620.35
sterile dominance v11.17-3.09
threat rate (last 10)0.220.31
threat rate (last 3)0.220.42
threat rate (last 5)0.240.35
travel km—267.10
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20