← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 47% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.23 |
| Rotherham win | 24% | 4.21 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rotherham +0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Luton +0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.63 |
| Over | 40% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Leo Fuhr Hjelde · Rotherham |
| 37' | 🟨 | Reece Burke · Luton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 47' | ⚽ | Cauley Woodrow · Luton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Allan Campbell · Luton |
| 78' | 🟨 | Cody Drameh · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Domingos Quina · Rotherham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marvelous Nakamba · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 15 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | AESSEAL New York Stadium |
| coach days | 226.00 | 165.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1549.32 | 1707.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.05 | 19.41 |
| eye test v1 | -1.18 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 45.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.60 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.99 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |