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QPR 0–3 Coventry

← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Coventry win39%2.45
QPR win31%3.12
Draw30%3.35

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
QPR +0.2554%1.83
Coventry +0.2546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.78
Over45%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Viktor Gyökeres · Coventry
34'🟨Kyle McFadzean · Coventry
45'🟨Josh Eccles · Coventry
52'🟨Callum Doyle · Coventry
54'🟨Leon Balogun · QPR
86'⚽Gustavo Hamer · Coventry
88'⚽Viktor Gyökeres · Coventry

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
6Shots14
2On target5
5Corners2
9Fouls10
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricQPRCoventry
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.230.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.780.57
cards avg (last 5)2.002.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLoftus Road
coach days73.002236.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.132.30
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.12
dominance (last 5)0.480.56
elo1471.611629.60
elo momentum (last 5)-44.37-15.28
eye test v1-1.210.89
eye trend v10.22-0.19
form points (last 5)1.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
keeper form v10.620.78
league points43.0059.00
league rank21.009.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win5.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.0075.60
possession avg (last 5)52.2048.00
rest days5.005.00
scorer concentration0.170.39
season ppg1.051.44
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.602.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.0017.00
skill v1-0.77-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)6.005.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.305.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.006.00
squad age28.68—
state index-1.070.12
sterile dominance v1-0.05-0.97
threat rate (last 10)0.220.33
threat rate (last 3)0.230.37
threat rate (last 5)0.220.35
travel km—135.60
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.80