← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Fri, Apr 7, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 36% | 2.73 |
| Middlesbrough win | 36% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Middlesbrough +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 38' | 🟨 | Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Chuba Akpom · Middlesbrough |
| 66' | ⚽ | Connor Roberts · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Obafemi · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 188.00 | 310.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1701.33 | 1825.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.07 | 2.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | 0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.80 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.85 |
| league points | 67.00 | 84.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 72.40 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 2.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.41 | 2.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.34 | 25.24 |
| state index | 1.07 | 1.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.02 | 1.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 109.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |