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Sunderland 4–4 Hull

← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Fri, Apr 7, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sunderland win49%1.98
Draw28%3.55
Hull win23%4.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hull −0.551%1.93
Sunderland −0.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.93
Over49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Ozan Tufan · Hull
21'⚽Joe Gelhardt · Sunderland
22'⚽Amad Diallo · Sunderland
25'⚽Allahyar Sayyadmanesh · Hull
34'🟨Allahyar Sayyadmanesh · Hull
66'⚽Regan Slater · Hull
73'⚽ (pen)Amad Diallo · Sunderland
81'⚽Jack Clarke · Sunderland
83'🟨Callum Elder · Hull
90'⚽ (pen)Ozan Tufan · Hull

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
18Shots9
7On target7
1Corners0
9Fouls16
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSunderlandHull
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.550.53
cards avg (last 5)1.600.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadium of Light
coach days249.00157.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.833.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.09
dominance (last 5)0.420.50
elo1612.721563.29
elo momentum (last 5)-12.1910.04
eye test v1-0.22-0.38
eye trend v1-0.300.34
first sub minute (last 10)62.5055.20
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.620.64
league points54.0048.00
league rank12.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win3.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6080.20
possession avg (last 5)45.8048.80
rest days6.906.10
scorer concentration0.160.33
season ppg1.381.23
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.00-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.8011.80
skill v1-0.580.22
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.502.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.20
squad age24.2627.60
state index-0.23-0.04
sterile dominance v1-0.120.01
threat rate (last 10)0.210.23
threat rate (last 3)0.180.25
threat rate (last 5)0.220.25
travel km—145.70
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.60