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Sheffield United 1–0 Wigan

← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Fri, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Davies

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United win68%1.42
Draw21%4.66
Wigan win11%8.97

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wigan −1.2551%1.92
Sheffield United −1.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.93
Over50%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Iliman Ndiaye · Sheffield United
39'🟨Christ Junior Tiehi · Wigan
86'🟨John Fleck · Sheffield United
90'🟨Anel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
22Shots9
4On target1
9Corners6
14Fouls5
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSheffield UnitedWigan
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.730.42
cards avg (last 5)2.402.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBramall Lane
coach days522.0096.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.08
corner diff avg (last 5)2.00-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.602.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.643.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.06
dominance (last 5)0.530.31
elo1729.871501.30
elo momentum (last 5)0.547.82
eye test v1-0.45-0.76
eye trend v1-0.490.33
first sub minute (last 10)65.4043.20
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
keeper form v10.730.74
league points73.0037.00
league rank2.0023.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6072.80
possession avg (last 5)52.0042.00
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.190.29
season ppg1.920.95
shot diff avg (last 5)1.20-10.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.807.20
skill v1-0.27-0.90
sot against avg (last 5)2.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.20
squad age26.7427.40
state index0.72-0.35
sterile dominance v10.370.06
threat rate (last 10)0.250.18
threat rate (last 3)0.180.17
threat rate (last 5)0.190.16
travel km—80.80
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.40