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Huddersfield 4–2 Middlesbrough

← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Middlesbrough win55%1.74
Draw26%3.90
Huddersfield win19%5.04

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield +0.7550%1.95
Middlesbrough +0.7550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.86
Over48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

43'⚽Marcus Forss · Middlesbrough
46'⚽Josh Ruffels · Huddersfield
52'🟨Jack Rudoni · Huddersfield
54'⚽Josh Koroma · Huddersfield
57'⚽Matthew Pearson · Huddersfield
62'🟨Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough
66'⚽Matthew Pearson · Huddersfield
74'⚽Chuba Akpom · Middlesbrough
80'🟨Josh Koroma · Huddersfield
80'🟨Tommy Smith · Middlesbrough

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots20
5On target6
5Corners9
5Fouls12
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuddersfieldMiddlesbrough
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.650.66
cards avg (last 5)1.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJohn Smith's Stadium
1.60
coach days59.00182.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.15
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.802.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.006.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.951.93
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.07
dominance (last 5)0.380.59
elo1541.821721.29
elo momentum (last 5)-6.6011.23
eye test v1-1.570.38
eye trend v1-0.21-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)45.3069.50
form points (last 5)5.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.402.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.64—
league points36.0067.00
league rank22.004.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)57.0085.00
possession avg (last 5)34.2060.60
rest days13.9613.96
scorer concentration0.140.34
season ppg0.951.76
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.803.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.4012.80
skill v1-2.871.43
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.605.30
sot for avg (last 3)1.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)1.804.80
squad age25.3625.46
state index-0.271.03
sterile dominance v1-1.571.14
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.200.23
threat rate (last 5)0.240.21
travel km—108.80
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.80