← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sun, Mar 19, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 48% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 |
| Bristol City win | 24% | 4.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Swansea −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Liam Cullen · Swansea |
| 74' | 🟨 | Nahki Wells · Bristol City |
| 77' | ⚽ | Olivier Ntcham · Swansea |
| 82' | 🟨 | Joël Piroe · Swansea |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ryan Manning · Swansea |
| 82' | 🟨 | Mark Sykes · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days | 595.00 | 776.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1555.17 | 1576.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.09 | -2.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.76 |
| league points | 43.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 4.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.40 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 27.76 |
| state index | -0.82 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.28 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |