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Sunderland 1–2 Sheffield United

← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Wed, Mar 15, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United win40%2.44
Draw30%3.25
Sunderland win30%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sunderland +0.2553%1.85
Sheffield United +0.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.71
Over43%2.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Jack Robinson · Sheffield United
24'🟨Max Lowe · Sheffield United
27'🟨Trai Hume · Sunderland
30'⚽Édouard Michut · Sunderland
35'🟨Tommy Doyle · Sheffield United
45'⚽James McAtee · Sheffield United
55'🟨Anel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United
61'⚽Tommy Doyle · Sheffield United
71'🟨Édouard Michut · Sunderland
90'🟨Daniel Ballard · Sunderland

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
7Shots11
3On target4
4Corners8
16Fouls16
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSunderlandSheffield United
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.610.69
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadium of Light
2.20
coach days226.00499.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.801.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.061.65
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.10
dominance (last 5)0.480.54
elo1614.081711.40
elo momentum (last 5)-34.87-22.77
eye test v10.130.16
eye trend v10.13-0.35
first sub minute (last 10)53.0064.30
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.14
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.630.73
league points52.0067.00
league rank12.002.00
matches since blank17.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4073.40
possession avg (last 5)54.6052.80
rest days3.334.21
scorer concentration0.170.20
season ppg1.441.86
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.602.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.2011.80
skill v10.34-0.15
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.60
squad age23.1827.30
state index-0.240.19
sterile dominance v10.430.12
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.19
threat rate (last 5)0.230.23
travel km—171.80
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00