← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Wed, Mar 15, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 52% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.49 |
| Bristol City win | 20% | 5.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Bristol City −0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 34' | 🟨 | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 51' | 🟨 | Zak Vyner · Bristol City |
| 62' | 🟨 | Luke Berry · Luton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Cameron Pring · Bristol City |
| 73' | 🟨 | Mark Sykes · Bristol City |
| 79' | 🟨 | Amari'i Bell · Luton |
| 80' | 🟨 | Elijah Adebayo · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 134.00 | 772.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 1.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1687.75 | 1581.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.11 | 6.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| league points | 60.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.10 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.89 | 27.76 |
| state index | 0.69 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |