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Blackburn 2–1 Reading

← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Wed, Mar 15, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackburn win56%1.73
Draw27%3.60
Reading win17%5.71

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reading −0.7551%1.93
Blackburn −0.7549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.62
Over41%2.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Ben Brereton Díaz · Blackburn
28'🟨Joe Rankin-Costello · Blackburn
68'⚽Cesare Casadei · Reading
82'⚽Ryan Hedges · Blackburn
85'🟨Sam Gallagher · Blackburn
85'🟨Joe Lumley · Reading
85'🟥Mamadou Loum · Reading
89'🟨Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan · Reading

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots9
6On target4
6Corners4
7Fouls7
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBlackburnReading
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.630.74
cards avg (last 5)2.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEwood Park
coach days287.00407.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.602.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.351.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.15
dominance (last 5)0.480.31
elo1624.481515.51
elo momentum (last 5)31.17-20.54
eye test v1-0.67-1.68
eye trend v10.14-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)62.8056.90
form points (last 5)12.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.15
keeper form v10.760.69
league points58.0044.00
league rank6.0016.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.0014.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0072.40
possession avg (last 5)50.6044.00
rest days4.994.20
scorer concentration0.260.28
season ppg1.611.22
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.20-6.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.006.00
skill v1-0.14-0.81
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.102.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.001.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.001.60
squad age25.0731.41
state index0.72-0.94
sterile dominance v10.330.32
threat rate (last 10)0.180.19
threat rate (last 3)0.200.13
threat rate (last 5)0.200.14
travel km—276.00
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.00