← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Tue, Mar 14, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool win | 37% | 41% | 2.60 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | 3.05 | fair |
| QPR win | 31% | 32% | 3.20 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR −0.25 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Blackpool −0.25 | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.56 |
| Over | 38% | 2.55 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Jerry Yates · Blackpool |
| 11' | ⚽ | Andy Lyons · Blackpool |
| 14' | ⚽ | Curtis Nelson · Blackpool |
| 36' | ⚽ | Jordan Thorniley · Blackpool |
| 43' | ⚽ | Chris Martin · QPR |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jimmy Dunne · QPR |
| 48' | ⚽ | Andy Lyons · Blackpool |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jerry Yates · Blackpool |
| 75' | 🟨 | Luke Amos · QPR |
| 87' | 🟨 | Robert Dickie · QPR |
| 88' | ⚽ |
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackpool | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Bloomfield Road |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 72.00 | 41.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1490.24 | 1515.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.64 | -36.91 |
| eye test v1 | -1.82 | -1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.10 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.59 |
| league points | 32.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 65.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.06 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.29 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 318.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |