← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Wed, Feb 15, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Linington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 52% | 44% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.44 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 20% | 29% | 5.01 | value: +43% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Huddersfield −0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.61 |
| Over | 40% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Phil Jagielka · Stoke |
| 17' | 🟨 | Matthew Pearson · Huddersfield |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ben Pearson · Stoke |
| 47' | 🟨 | Jack Rudoni · Huddersfield |
| 51' | 🟨 | William Boyle · Huddersfield |
| 64' | 🟨 | William Boyle · Huddersfield |
| 64' | 🟥 | William Boyle · Huddersfield |
| 73' | ⚽ | Jacob Brown · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis Baker · Stoke |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.59 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| Lewis Baker · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 198.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1571.01 | 1559.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.93 | -24.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| league points | 34.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.20 | 28.09 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| travel km | — | 78.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |