← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Tue, Feb 14, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR win | 40% | 33% | 2.43 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 30% | 41% | 3.26 | value: +34% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| QPR −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.68 |
| Over | 43% | 2.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Luke O'Nien · Sunderland |
| 63' | 🟨 | Samuel Field · QPR |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jack Clarke · Sunderland |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jamal Lowe · QPR |
| 72' | 🟨 | Andre Dozzell · QPR |
| 82' | 🟨 | Stefan Johansen · QPR |
| 82' | ⚽ | Jack Clarke · Sunderland |
| 89' | 🟨 | Kenneth Paal · QPR |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jimmy Dunne · QPR |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patrick Roberts · Sunderland |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Loftus Road |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 13.00 | 197.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1552.89 | 1632.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.46 | 3.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 47.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| league points | 39.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.56 | 22.41 |
| state index | -0.69 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 386.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |