← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 50% | 56% | 1.93 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
| Birmingham win | 22% | 22% | 4.47 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Birmingham −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.78 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Andrew Fisher · Swansea |
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Scott Hogan · Birmingham |
| 23' | ⚽ | Joël Piroe · Swansea |
| 29' | ⚽ | Liam Cullen · Swansea |
| 55' | ⚽ | Tahith Chong · Birmingham |
| 58' | ⚽ | Joël Piroe · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juninho Bacuna · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hannibal Mejbri · Birmingham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lukas Jutkiewicz · Birmingham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Auston Trusty · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days | 552.00 | 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 3.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1626.51 | 1511.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.36 | -54.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| league points | 39.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.98 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 25.14 | 28.03 |
| state index | 0.62 | -1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.58 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 169.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |