← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 4, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 40% | 33% | 2.44 | fair |
| Burnley win | 32% | 42% | 3.08 | value: +30% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.42 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Norwich −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.96 |
| Under | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Anass Zaroury · Burnley |
| 12' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Giannoulis · Norwich |
| 16' | 🟨 | Andrew Omobamidele · Norwich |
| 29' | 🟨 | Josh Brownhill · Burnley |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 42' | 🟨 | Kieran Dowell · Norwich |
| 45' | 🟨 | Connor Roberts · Burnley |
| 54' | ⚽ | Vitinho · Burnley |
| 60' | ⚽ | Hjalmar Ekdal · Burnley |
| 83' | 🟨 | Marcelino Núñez · Norwich |
| 86' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| Adam Idah · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 34.00 | 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1643.75 | 1806.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.90 | 27.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 42.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | 1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.06 | 25.76 |
| state index | 0.53 | 1.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 1.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 269.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |