← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 36% | 51% | 2.65 | value: +36% |
| Swansea win | 34% | 25% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.27 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Swansea +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.78 |
| Over | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟥 | Luke O'Nien · Sunderland |
| 19' | 🟨 | Ben Cabango · Swansea |
| 50' | ⚽ | Joël Piroe · Swansea |
| 53' | 🟨 | Joël Piroe · Swansea |
| 62' | 🟨 | Joel Latibeaudiere · Swansea |
| 64' | ⚽ | Dan Neil · Sunderland |
| 70' | ⚽ | Liam Cullen · Swansea |
| 78' | ⚽ | Oliver Cooper · Swansea |
| 88' | 🟨 | Matthew Sorinola · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Trai Hume · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 166.00 | 531.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1627.61 | 1607.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.67 | -8.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 38.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 66.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 2.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 23.24 | 25.93 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | 1.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 401.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |