← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 39% | 36% | 2.53 | fair |
| Luton win | 31% | 36% | 3.17 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton +0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| West Brom +0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.62 |
| Over | 40% | 2.44 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 10' | ⚽ | Elijah Adebayo · Luton |
| 39' | ⚽ | Daryl Dike · West Brom |
| 43' | 🟨 | Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu · Luton |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jayson Molumby · West Brom |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jayson Molumby · West Brom |
| 67' | ⚽ | Conor Townsend · West Brom |
| 88' | 🟨 | Allan Campbell · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Bree · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daryl Dike · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 74.00 | 105.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.66 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1662.76 | 1647.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.41 | 35.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.88 |
| league points | 39.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.84 | 27.76 |
| state index | 0.64 | 1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 125.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |