← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sun, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 38% | 39% | 2.54 | fair |
| Blackpool win | 33% | 35% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Blackpool +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.93 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Callum Connolly · Blackpool |
| 19' | 🟨 | Édouard Michut · Sunderland |
| 21' | ⚽ | Shayne Lavery · Blackpool |
| 28' | 🟨 | Ian Carlo Poveda · Blackpool |
| 66' | ⚽ | Ross Stewart · Sunderland |
| 71' | 🟨 | Shayne Lavery · Blackpool |
| 72' | 🟨 | Luke O'Nien · Sunderland |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jake Beesley · Blackpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Callum Connolly · Blackpool |
| 90' | 🟥 | Callum Connolly · Blackpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackpool | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Bloomfield Road |
| coach days | 0.00 | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1521.01 | 1628.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.34 | 28.86 |
| eye test v1 | -1.05 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 25.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 2.78 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.42 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 22.69 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 163.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |