← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Fri, Dec 30, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 50% | 30% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.55 | fair |
| Watford win | 22% | 43% | 4.33 | value: +87% ⚠ |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Watford −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.79 |
| Over | 45% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Matt Grimes · Swansea |
| 28' | 🟨 | Harry Darling · Swansea |
| 39' | ⚽ | Joël Piroe · Swansea |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jay Fulton · Swansea |
| 64' | 🟨 | Joel Latibeaudiere · Swansea |
| 69' | 🟨 | Samuel Kalu · Watford |
| 71' | 🟨 | Daniel Bachmann · Watford |
| 74' | ⚽ | Liam Cullen · Swansea |
| 78' | ⚽ | Joël Piroe · Swansea |
| 87' | ⚽ | Joel Latibeaudiere · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days | 516.00 | 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1596.94 | 1636.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.66 | -1.31 |
| eye test v1 | 1.02 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| league points | 32.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 3.10 | 4.32 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.42 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.82 | 27.14 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.89 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 243.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |