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Sheffield United 3–1 Coventry

← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Mon, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Sheffield United win51%56%1.87value: +5%
Draw27%25%3.68fair
Coventry win22%19%4.47fair

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United −0.552%1.87
Coventry −0.548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.93
Over49%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Ben Sheaf · Coventry
35'⚽James McAtee · Sheffield United
41'🟨John Egan · Sheffield United
52'⚽Ciaran Clark · Sheffield United
60'🟨Jake Bidwell · Coventry
68'🟨Kasey Palmer · Coventry
71'⚽Tommy Doyle · Sheffield United
75'⚽Viktor Gyökeres · Coventry
77'🟨John Egan · Sheffield United
77'🟥John Egan · Sheffield United

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots11
3On target4
2Corners7
10Fouls10
0Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSheffield UnitedCoventry
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.760.53
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBramall Lane
coach days420.002126.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.11
corner diff avg (last 5)3.801.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.80
corners for avg (last 5)8.005.40
corners volatility (last 10)4.472.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.06
dominance (last 5)0.640.63
elo1728.491629.02
elo momentum (last 5)20.3016.05
eye test v11.050.86
eye trend v1-0.350.31
first sub minute (last 10)46.9062.60
form points (last 5)12.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.490.85
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
keeper form v10.68—
league points44.0033.00
league rank2.0011.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6080.80
possession avg (last 5)51.0048.00
rest days6.794.80
scorer concentration0.240.43
season ppg1.911.50
shot diff avg (last 5)6.805.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.6015.20
skill v1-0.190.25
sot against avg (last 5)2.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.705.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.007.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.405.60
squad age28.7326.43
state index1.010.77
sterile dominance v1-0.69-0.69
threat rate (last 10)0.310.34
threat rate (last 3)0.250.40
threat rate (last 5)0.330.34
travel km—102.50
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.00