← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Mon, Dec 26, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 44% | 43% | 2.19 | fair |
| Blackburn win | 28% | 30% | 3.56 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Blackburn −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.91 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ (og) | Ross Stewart · Blackburn |
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Ross Stewart · Sunderland |
| 25' | 🟨 | Tyler Morton · Blackburn |
| 39' | 🟨 | Dennis Cirkin · Sunderland |
| 52' | 🟨 | Daniel Ayala · Blackburn |
| 60' | 🟨 | Trai Hume · Sunderland |
| 87' | 🟨 | John Buckley · Blackburn |
| 90' | 🟨 | Amad Diallo · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Rankin-Costello · Blackburn |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Hirst · Blackburn |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| ⚽ |
| Ellis Simms · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 147.00 | 208.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1604.09 | 1625.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.78 | -14.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| league points | 31.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 8.90 | 8.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 23.68 | 25.07 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| travel km | — | 149.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |