← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Nov 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 59% | 49% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.97 | value: +3% |
| Rotherham win | 16% | 25% | 6.00 | value: +48% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rotherham −1 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Luton −1 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.92 |
| Over | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Jamie Lindsay · Rotherham |
| 18' | 🟨 | Wes Harding · Rotherham |
| 23' | 🟨 | Daniel Barlaser · Rotherham |
| 47' | 🟨 | Lee Peltier · Rotherham |
| 66' | 🟨 | Alfie Doughty · Luton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Cohen Bramall · Rotherham |
| 89' | 🟨 | Tom Eaves · Rotherham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brooke Norton-Cuffy · Rotherham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Conor Washington · Rotherham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luke Berry · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 11.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -6.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.84 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.27 |
| elo | 1638.35 | 1563.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.32 | -3.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.90 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 29.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -11.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | -1.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.82 | 25.57 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |