← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Fri, Nov 11, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 44% | 33% | 2.23 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 27% | 40% | 3.62 | value: +45% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Sunderland −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Ellis Simms · Sunderland |
| 28' | 🟨 | Hannibal Mejbri · Birmingham |
| 42' | 🟨 | Niall Huggins · Sunderland |
| 49' | ⚽ | Amad Diallo · Sunderland |
| 74' | 🟨 | Corry Evans · Sunderland |
| 78' | ⚽ | Lukas Jutkiewicz · Birmingham |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jay Matete · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Longelo · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Clarke · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | St Andrew's Stadium |
| coach days | 133.00 | 102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1568.44 | 1589.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.39 | -14.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| league points | 28.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 3.01 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.87 | 23.15 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 272.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |