← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Tue, Nov 1, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United win | 44% | 50% | 2.19 | value: +10% |
| Bristol City win | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.62 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United +0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Bristol City +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.89 |
| Under | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Alex Scott · Bristol City |
| 49' | ⚽ | Iliman Ndiaye · Sheffield United |
| 51' | 🟨 | Matty James · Bristol City |
| 62' | 🟨 | James McAtee · Sheffield United |
| 70' | 🟨 | Iliman Ndiaye · Sheffield United |
| 81' | 🟨 | John Egan · Sheffield United |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ciaran Clark · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Williams · Bristol City |
| 90' | 🟥 | George Tanner · Bristol City |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Baldock · Sheffield United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Ashton Gate |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 638.00 | 365.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1548.34 | 1700.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.66 | -26.32 |
| eye test v1 | -1.15 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.73 |
| league points | 22.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 3.38 | 3.35 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.98 | 28.07 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |