← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 59% | 71% | 1.62 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 24% | 17% | 4.08 | fair |
| Reading win | 17% | 12% | 5.98 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading −1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Burnley −1 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.89 |
| Over | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Burnley |
| 35' | 🟨 | Rahman Baba · Reading |
| 56' | ⚽ | Thomas Ince · Reading |
| 59' | 🟨 | Thomas Holmes · Reading |
| 66' | ⚽ | Manuel Benson · Burnley |
| 72' | 🟨 | Mamadou Loum · Reading |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arijanet Murić · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manuel Benson · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Ince · Reading |
| 90' | ⚽ | Anass Zaroury · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 9 |
| 7 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 150.00 | 270.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.97 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1761.03 | 1542.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.46 | -13.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.58 |
| league points | 32.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.52 | 27.28 |
| state index | 1.25 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.05 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 276.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |