← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Fri, Oct 28, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 39% | 33% | 2.45 | fair |
| QPR win | 32% | 41% | 3.11 | value: +28% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.36 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Birmingham −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Auston Trusty · Birmingham |
| 7' | 🟨 | Hannibal Mejbri · Birmingham |
| 29' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Longelo · Birmingham |
| 35' | 🟨 | Auston Trusty · Birmingham |
| 53' | 🟨 | Robert Dickie · QPR |
| 55' | 🟨 | Krystian Bielik · Birmingham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Leon Balogun · QPR |
| 70' | 🟨 | Tim Iroegbunam · QPR |
| 78' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Longelo · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 15 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | St Andrew's Stadium |
| coach days | 119.00 | 149.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1538.87 | 1641.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.55 | 27.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 20.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.20 | 0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.25 | 25.59 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.15 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 155.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |