← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sun, Oct 23, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 45% | 45% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.46 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 27% | 29% | 3.67 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Cardiff −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.78 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟥 | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
| 38' | ⚽ | Oliver Cooper · Swansea |
| 50' | 🟨 | Harry Darling · Swansea |
| 50' | 🟨 | Callum O'Dowda · Cardiff |
| 58' | 🟨 | Michael Obafemi · Swansea |
| 60' | 🟨 | Luke Cundle · Swansea |
| 61' | 🟨 | Joe Ralls · Cardiff |
| 67' | ⚽ | Michael Obafemi · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mark Harris · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 5 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days | 448.00 | 52.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1618.33 | 1552.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.55 | 9.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 44.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 24.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 4.68 | 3.68 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.05 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 23.37 | 26.24 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.18 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 54.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |