← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 41% | 34% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 24% | 3.20 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 28% | 41% | 3.45 | value: +43% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland +0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Burnley +0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.67 |
| Over | 41% | 2.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Jóhann Guðmundsson · Burnley |
| 16' | ⚽ | Amad Diallo · Sunderland |
| 20' | ⚽ | Dan Neil · Sunderland |
| 50' | ⚽ | Nathan Tella · Burnley |
| 52' | 🟨 | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Burnley |
| 61' | ⚽ | Manuel Benson · Burnley |
| 69' | ⚽ | Anass Zaroury · Burnley |
| 72' | 🟨 | Danny Batth · Sunderland |
| 80' | 🟨 | Josh Brownhill · Burnley |
| 87' | ⚽ | Josh Brownhill · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 82.00 | 143.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 4.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1591.30 | 1744.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.41 | 3.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.78 |
| league points | 20.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.16 | 1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 23.93 | 26.27 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.97 | 1.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 136.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |