← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Wed, Oct 19, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool win | 44% | 49% | 2.20 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.45 | fair |
| Hull win | 27% | 25% | 3.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackpool −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Hull −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Ryan Longman · Hull |
| 31' | ⚽ | Kenneth Dougall · Blackpool |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ryan Longman · Hull |
| 43' | 🟨 | Regan Slater · Hull |
| 45' | 🟨 | Callum Wright · Blackpool |
| 45' | ⚽ | Greg Docherty · Hull |
| 48' | 🟨 | Gary Madine · Blackpool |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jacob Greaves · Hull |
| 78' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Pelkas · Hull |
| 79' | ⚽ | Regan Slater · Hull |
| 81' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackpool | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.35 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Bloomfield Road |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 140.00 | 18.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1560.19 | 1494.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.50 | -40.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 44.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.67 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.25 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.66 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.66 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 176.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |