← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sun, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 36% | 44% | 2.63 | value: +17% |
| Birmingham win | 34% | 29% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.26 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Birmingham +0 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.70 |
| Over | 43% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Troy Deeney · Birmingham |
| 26' | 🟨 | Maxime Colin · Birmingham |
| 33' | 🟨 | Krystian Bielik · Birmingham |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jacob Greaves · Hull |
| 47' | ⚽ | Juninho Bacuna · Birmingham |
| 53' | 🟨 | Doğukan Sinik · Hull |
| 66' | 🟨 | Randell Williams · Hull |
| 70' | 🟨 | Juninho Bacuna · Birmingham |
| 73' | 🟨 | Nathan Baxter · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | The MKM Stadium |
| coach days | 15.00 | 107.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1511.81 | 1523.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.42 | 32.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.20 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.67 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | -1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.79 | 25.80 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 173.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |